MERRY CHRISTMAS CARD FROM BERNIE ECCLESTONE

Bernie Ecclestone sent out his traditional Christmas card to the Formula 1 community, which this year takes the mickey out of the shambolic Mexican Grand Prix podium ceremony.

This year’s cartoon features F1 supremo Ecclestone peering mischievously at the podium scene where race winner Lewis Hamilton celebrates with second placed Nico Rosberg and a sheepish looking Sebastian Vettel looking down at Red Bull duo Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen questioning why they are not on the podium.

The race will be remembered by penalties which saw Verstappen cross the finish line third, but a penalty forced him our of the pre-podium room to make way for Vettel.

However a few hours later Vettel was also penalised and lost third place to Ricciardo who took his crew to the podium, when the circuit was deserted, to enact their own ceremony.

RON DENNIS IN THE FRAME TO TAKEOVER AT MANOR

A Formula 1 off-season which was expected to be nice and quiet, but instead has exploded with news and speculation since the chequered flag waved at the season finale in Abu Dhabi, fired up by seismic events (for the sport) such as Nico Rosberg’s shock retirement and the coup d’equipe which ousted Ron Dennis from the helm of McLaren.

Much has and is being written about Rosberg’s decision and his replacement, now former McLaren chief Dennis is in the news again as reports emerge that he may find his way back into Formula 1 with Manor.

A number of sources are linking Dennis to a buyout of Manor, whose current owner Stephen Fitzpatrick is keen to off-load the team to the highest bidder in an effort to recover some €30-million he pumped in to save the outfit in 2015.

In the running until recently was a consortium headed by well connected American businessman Tavo Hellmund. However this deal appears to have stalled at the eleventh hour, which has triggered interest from other parties.

Former Manor sporting director Graeme Lowdon and Indonesian billionaire businessman Ricardo Gelael have emerged as a group of potential buyers. Gelael already involved in the sport through Jagonya Ayam – KFC Indonesia) and already sponsors Ferrari’s recently appointed reserve Antonio Giovinazzi.

Gelael’s son, GP2 Series driver Sean Galeal, is making his way up the ladder with Formula 1 in his sights, hence the interest by his father to buy into an F1 team to streamline the process of his son making it onto the grid.

Now Dennis has entered the picture as a potential buyer through his connection to Manor racing director Dave Ryan, who was McLaren since the James Hunt era in the seventies and moved up through the ranks to sporting director before departing in 2009.

Hamilton is lying the triple World Champion has vetoed Wehrlein’s promotion !

Adding intrigue to the scenario is that Auto Bild reports that Hamilton is not keen to have Pascal Wehrlein as his teammate, because having the the young German in the team reminds him too much of the situation at 2007 at McLaren where Hamilton teamed up alongside Fernando Alonso.

Furthermore Wehrlein has proven to be very fast during his stints testing for Mercedes, and he has also clocked up more mileage in testing of the wider 2017 Pirelli tyres than any other driver.

The report goes even further and suggests that Hamilton is lying when he says he does not care who his teammate is next year, because the triple World Champion has vetoed Wehrlein’s promotion according to Auto Bild.

Felipe Massa has accepted a deal to remain in Formula 1

Reports in Brazilian and German media claim that Felipe Massa has accepted a deal to remain in Formula 1 for another year with Williams, allowing Valtteri Bottas to fill the most desired seat in the sport at Mercedes.

Auto Bild claim that Massa, who a month ago gave a tearful farewell to his fans at Interlagos, is set to remain in the sport to fulfill Williams’ contractual obligations to have an experienced driver alongside teenage rookie Lance Stroll who secured his drive thanks to a huge payment by his billionaire father Lawrence Stroll.

A number of sources suggest that a one year retainer of €6-million has enticed the Brazilian veteran to stay with Williams for another year.

His presence in the team ticks two very important boxes: the first being an experienced driver to mentor young Stroll; the other to provide Martini with a credible and marketable driver for the brand driver which a teenager is not.

This in turn allows Bottas to fill Nico Rosberg’s seat at Mercedes alongside Lewis Hamilton for 2017, fulfilling the wish of team boss (and Bottas manager) Toto Wolff to have the Finn at the Silver Arrows team.

Mexican-American Tavo Hellmund and Manor F1...

The last couple of weeks have been a lively time for Manor Grand Prix Ltd. In Abu Dhabi, team boss Stephen Fitzpatrick said that “We have agreed terms with an investor at the moment and we are still working through that and I can’t really talk more about the specifics”. 

There is no doubt that the investor at that point was Mexican-American Tavo Hellmund, who was in a period of exclusive negotiation at that point. However, a few days later this ended and other potential bidders were told that they could re-enter the discussions, if they were willing to move quickly. There were at least two bidders that I heard about and perhaps others as well, although there was not much specific information. 

There has certainly not been any paperwork filed as yet with Companies House, with the team still being owned by Just Racing Ltd, which is a company that Fitzpatrick used to be the holding company. The key company in the story is Manor Grand Prix Racing Ltd (6661964), which is the legal entity which signed the commercial agreement with the Formula One group. 

This continues to be owned, at the moment by Just Racing Ltd, and the ownership of this entity has yet to legal change, but there have been signs that things are changing, with the filing of a report from the person who was overseeing the post-administration settlement, bringing that process to a close. We expect an announcement shortly and it is thought likely that will involve former Manor F1 part-owner and CEO Graeme Lowdon. As to who is supporting the bid, we will have to see.

ROSBERG VS HAMILTON WHO IS "THE REAL CHAMPION" THE DEFINITIVE ANALYSIS

Analysis by Luka Varga aka LePaul

A lot was said about luck and lack of thereof, technical issues and how they affected the fight for the the 2016 Formula 1 World Championship, it even came to a point of a lot of people saying Nico Rosberg won the WDC only because he was lucky and would, otherwise, be far behind Lewis Hamilton, the “real” champion of 2016.

So, how much did luck and technical issues actually influence the fight for WDC?

Here’s my analysis of potential points lost by each Mercedes driver, who got lucky, who got unlucky. Let’s start, race by race.

Legend:
HT = Hamilton technical issues points lost,
RT = Rosberg technical issues points lost.
HL+ = Hamilton points gained through luck (HL-, lost trough bad luck),
RL+ = Rosberg points gained through luck (RL-, lost through bad luck)

The analysis is about potential or theoretical points based on the pace shown by both drivers throughout FPs, Q and race (whenever possible), obviously, the real life results themselves could differ.



Australia: No technical problems for either driver in race or qualifying. Bad start by Hamilton. Raikkonen’s PU blows up while he’s in front of Hamilton. Ferrari mess up with putting Vettel on an aggressive strategy, as a result, he finished behind Hamilton. Rosberg first, Hamilton second. Due to Ferrari messing up (I believe he’d have finished in front of Kimi, but behind Vettel if Vettel had been put on the same strategy as Hamilton, Vettel had an extra stop and was right on Hamilton’s tail), I’d say HL+ = 3 points.

Bahrain: No technical problems in qualifying and race for either driver. Rosberg had a better start than Hamilton, who also was involved in a race incident with Bottas at Turn 1, fell down to P7 and damaged his bodywork. Vettel’s PU blew on the way to the grid so Hamilton had one less car to overtake. Hamilton finished third behind Rosberg and Kimi. HL+ (Vettel not being in the race, would be hard or impossible to overtake, considering the final gap to Kimi, Hamilton wouldn’t get by Vettel): three points. HL- (incident with Bottas): three points, without the incident. I do believe Hamilton would have finished second as Rosberg overtook him at the start and usually, their lap one positions are their finishing positions. Through good luck, he didn’t lose three more points. Through bad luck though, he lost three points. All in all, I’d say, points-wise, HL+/- = 0 points. He did have a hand in the Bottas incident (although I’d say Bottas is more to blame), while it was pure luck that Vettel didn’t start the race.

China: Technical problem for Hamilton in Q (MGU-H failure), started last. Finished seventh. Without the technical problem, it’s likely he would’ve finished second (we can’t draw any conclusions from qualifying but in FP sessions, Rosberg was quicker by around two tenths. We also can’t draw much conclusion from the race pace as Hamilton’s car was damaged while Nico’s was not and we don’t know how much the damage from first lap incident cost him). HT = 12

Russia: ERS failure for Hamilton in Q3, started tenth. Based on FPs, they were very close (Nico toppingFP1 by a huge margin of around 8 tenths, Hamilton vica versa in FP2, FP3 Hamilton is narrowly quicker by half a tenth). They both had technical issues during the race that needed nursing. I do believe Rosberg’s pace, in general, was better throughout the race as he finished 25 seconds ahead, while Hamilton only needed to actually overtake four rivals, most of them a lot slower, cars to get to P2 as Vettel and Kvyat took each other out, Ricciardo was also affected by the incident and lost a position while Perez, also as a result of the incident, suffered a flat tire, and while both Hamilton and Rosberg nursed their cars). Nico also managed to get the pole, fastest lap, led every lap and won. So I do not believe the ERS failure in Q3 had any effect on the end result of the race (see similar in Austria for Nico).

Spain: Obviously, we know what happened here with the lap one incident. Nico got the jump on Hamilton at the start and, without the incident, I’d say Nico would have won the race (he was in prime form and, again, the position they are in after the first lap is usually the position they finish in) with Hamilton coming in second. Hamilton crashed first so he was awfully lucky (points-wise) he took Nico with him. The different scenarios available: ROS finishes first, HAM second (-7 points delta for HAM), HAM 1st, ROS 2nd (+7 points delta for HAM), HAM doesn’t finish, ROS wins (-25 points delta for HAM, remember, HAM’s car wasn’t under control when it hit ROS who was completely in control of his car at the point of impact), both don’t finish (actual outcome). Based on what happened, it was actually the second best outcome for HAM. Without it, as I said before, I’d say ROS would have won with HAM second. RL- = 25, HL- = 18

Monaco: Hamilton’s qualifying issue only limited him to a single run in Q3, considering he was three tenths off Ricciardo’s pole time, I don’t think it mattered much. He did get to record one quick lap, if he could have been that much faster, he would have been. He started third behind Ricciardo and Rosberg. Rosberg also had the same technical issue before going out in Q3 (both drivers suffered fuel pressure issues). In the race we were robbed of a normal start (SC start). Rosberg had glazed brakes and let Hamilton by. Hamilton then got lucky with RB not having the tires ready for Ricciardo. I would say that without Rosberg letting Hamilton by, Hamilton would have gotten by him during the first round of pit stops. Based on the gap to Vettel in fourth place (16 seconds), I’d say it’s more than probable Hamilton would finish behind him if he were stuck behind Rosberg for another 15 laps until his first pit stop considering the pace of other cars and he would definitely have finished behind Ricciardo. HL+ = 13 points.

Canada: No technical issues for either driver in qualifying or in the race. They touched in first corner when Hamilton defended after a poor start and Rosberg lost a lot of places while Hamilton didn’t lose anything. Ferrari messed up with the strategy, otherwise it’s possible the win would go to them, however, Vettel made too many mistakes for that to happen. Without the unlucky incident, Rosberg would, in my opinion, finish a distant third. RL- = 5 points.

Baku: both had the same technical issue with the engine mode. I don’t think it mattered much in the end result as Hamilton had an overall bad weekend and as Rosberg was quicker with a similar issue as Hamilton. Rosberg did also have another technical issue in FP2 (a problem with his car’s drive), not that it mattered for the race. Rosberg’s second Grand Slam (the first one being in Russia earlier in the year).

Austria: Rosberg is handed a five place grid penalty for gearbox change which got damaged in FP when his suspension broke and he crashed out. Still, Rosberg was in the lead of the race and (surprisingly), Mercedes offered Hamilton an undercut. Now, it’s true that they pitted Rosberg first during the previous pit stops, however, he wasn’t undercutting Hamilton at the time, but rival drivers. Hamilton’s slow pit stop contributed to Rosberg getting the lead. On the last lap, they crashed when Hamilton tried to overtake him and Rosberg’s brake-by-wire went into a passive mode (something that shouldn’t have happened), with Hamilton being the lucky one who could continue without any issue and Rosberg dropping to fourth as he had a lot of damage on his car. For the record, I do not think Rosberg is to blame and do think he’s unlucky with being the only one whose car was damaged, however, the stewards gave him a time penalty due to the collision so I won’t give any points delta to Rosberg here, even though he easily could have scored 13 or 6 points more than he did. Had he finished second, I would give seven points on account of his brake-by-wire going into a passive mode while being in the lead (a technical glitch), but in that case, he should have given the place to Hamilton, not fight to try and stay in front of Hamilton.

Great Britain: Rosberg has technical issues in FP2 which prevent him going out and then while running in second during the race, he encounters a gearbox issue, the team tell him not to use seventh gear and as a result, Rosberg receives ten seconds penalty which relegated him to third. We were robbed of a normal start (SC start). RT = 3 points.

Hungary: No issues for any of the the contenders nor in qualifying or in the race.

Germany: Rosberg tops in all FPs and gets the pole. An electrical issue during his first Q3 run meant he only had one run to snatch top spot on the grid. In the race Rosberg made a bad start, then receives a seconds penalty for his overtake on Verstappen (in my opinion, it wasn’t deserved as we’ve had similar overtakes with no penalties, butwe won’t question the stewards).

Belgium: Hamilton starts second to last as a result of a myriad of grid penalties for stockpiling PU parts. Note: Alonso received fewer grid penalties, but started behind Hamilton. Hamilton finishes third, Rosberg wins. In the race itself, Hamilton was very lucky as he overtook only a couple of cars on track, the rest were mainly due to the race being stopped and/or incidents, which also rendered three of his main competitors (Vettel, Raikkonen, Verstappen) out of contention. By the time Hamilton was third, on lap 18, he had only overtaken half a dozen or so drivers on track, the rest dropped behind him either through collisions, tires blowing up, or when they pitted. Nonetheless, he finished 27 seconds behind Rosberg, suggesting Rosberg had a superior pace on the day. He was also 13 seconds behind Ricciardo. Ferrari were looking mighty quick, as were Red Bull (as proven by Ricciardo), so in a normal race, I don’t think Hamilton would have scored P3 in the end. I also doubt he’d have won it (Rosberg’s pace was superior). So, without penalties, I’d say he’d have finished second, while without enjoying some luck (namely VES-VET-RAI incident), he may well have finished P5 or P6. So, HT = 3, HL+ = 7.

Italy: No issues for the two drivers in qualu=ifying or race. Hamilton makes a bad start but is lucky that Ferrari messed up the strategy by pitting both drivers twice, although I don’t think they would’ve finished in front of him in either case.

Singapore: FP2, a technical issue for Hamilton. No issues for either driver in qualifying or in the race.

Malaysia: Hamilton on pole, Rosberg second. Rosberg gets T-boned by Vettel, fights to come home third. He got lucky in the incident with Vettel as he was not forced to retgire (or the incident with Raikkonen, for which Rosberg was to blame, without getting T-boned by Vettel, though, it wouldn’t have happened. Same as with Hamilton getting tangled up in race incidents from which he escaped relatively unscathed, I don’t count that as a *L+). Hamilton retires from lead with a PU failure. In a ‘normal’ race, I’d say Hamilton had the pace over Rosberg and would have won the race with Rosberg (who also proved he had a strong pace) finishing second. HT = 25 points, RL- = 3 points.

Japan: Rosberg fastest in all FPs, qualifies on pole and wins the race. Hamilton started second, made another bad start and then recovered to finish third. No issues for either driver.

USA: Hamilton wins from pole, Rosberg second. No issues for either driver. Rosberg got helped by the VSC to jump Ricciardo at the pit stop, although I do believe he’d have finished in front of him regardless because he had better pace. He was 15 seconds ahead at the end of the race even though he emerged only about three seconds in front after the VSC pit stop.

Mexico: Hamilton had a glazed brake, overshot the chicane at the start which helped him to stay in front, otherwise no issues for either driver.

Brazil: No issues for either driver. Rosberg got a lucky with Red Bull risking with a different strategy to try and go for the win, otherwise he’d have finished third, behind Verstappen. We were robbed of a normal start again. RL+ = 3 points.

Abu Dhabi: no issues for either driver.

Tally-up – technical issues:
Hamilton lost 40 points directly through technical issues (China, Spa, Malaysia)
Rosberg lost three points directly through technical issues (Great Britain)

Points gained through sheer luck:
Hamilton gained 23 points through good luck (Monaco, Spa incidents)
Rosberg gained three points through good luck (Brazil)

Points lost through sheer bad luck:
Hamilton: 18 (Spain)
Rosberg: 33 (Spain, Canada, Malaysia)

All tallied up: Hamilton would have gained 58 points without technical issues and bad luck and lost 23 without good luck, so all in all, he’d have 35 points more.

Rosberg would have gained 36 points without technical issues and bad luck and lost 3 points without good luck. 33 points more.

If you don’t count Spain (as both scored no points), Hamilton would have gained 40 points and lost 23, so all in all, he’d have gained 17. Rosberg would have gained eight points.

So while Hamilton has suffered more as far as technical issues go, he lost fewer points through bad luck and gained more through good luck than Rosberg.

In my opinion, with luck and technical issues out of the equation, it would come down to who would’ve won the Spanish Grand Prix. For reasons written above, I do think Rosberg would have won that day in Barcelona. If Hamilton had won it, he’d have been theWorld Champion this year.

So in the end we should accept that Rosberg deserves the title as a champion season is always characterised by great driving, being fast consistently, winning regularly and of course a good helping of luck.

If I missed something in my analysis – please, do say. I spent three hours now going through past race highlights, reports, FPs, Qs, etc., to write this down, so it’s entirely possible I missed something, although I hope I haven’t.

MERCEDES MAKE BID FOR BOTTAS TO REPLACE ROSBERG

Mercedes have made a bid for Valtteri Bottas to replace Nico Rosberg, according to various reports in British media.

BBC and Sky Sports are reporting that Williams driver Bottas is top of the list of candidates to take up the most coveted cockpit in Formula 1.

With BBC claiming: “Wolff has approached Williams with a proposal that he gives them a major reduction in their engine bill – said to be in the region of €10-million euros – more than half the total fee – in return for releasing Bottas.”

“Williams also have the option to run Mercedes reserve driver Pascal Wehrlein in Bottas’ place,” added the report, which also suggested that the bid was declined by Williams.

The stumbling block is that Bottas is vital to Williams on several fronts, not least of which is the fact that the team have taken on big paying 18 year old Lance Stroll who will be relying on the Finn for mentoring during his rookie season.

Furthermore a number of sponsors including Martini are keen to have the experience of Bottas and an ‘older’ driver for promotional activities. In other words: it’s complicated.

While Mercedes themselves have declared that they will not break any existing contracts between drivers and their respective teams, thus a deal for Bottas would require Williams to be happy.

Thus Mercedes could (and probably will) sweeten the deal substantially and by all accounts are trying to do so in their attempt to sign a top driver to partner Lewis Hamilton in their second car.

In their favour they do have substantial leverage with Williams as they supply the Grove outfit with power units, thus an even bigger discount than the €10-million euros first offered may be more tempting. In the end money talks in Formula 1, and most professional sports for that matter.

The Mercedes team boss is also close to Frank and Claire Williams as he was once a share-holder in the team, while Wolff is part of Bottas’ management team.

Adding a twist to the whole affair is the fact that Mercedes technical chief Paddy Lowe is supposedly in talks with Williams to head up the team.

Apparently out of the running is Fernando Alonso who is committed to McLaren until the end of 2018 with no get out clause in his deal. Pascal Wehrlein remains an alternative option for the World Champion team should the Bottas bid fail.

Williams have refused to comment on these latest reports linking their driver to Mercedes for next season.

No brake pedal? No steering wheel? No problem!

Michigan legalizes sales of driverless car, clears path for AI ride-hailing services

By: Brandon Turkus

Michigan went red in the last presidential election, it has a Republican governor, and the GOP has control of both houses of the state legislature. But the Wolverine State has just enacted the most progressive autonomous driving laws in the country. Counterintuitive, we know.

Governor Rick Snyder signed the new laws into action today, in a move backed by the Detroit Three, Toyota, tech giant Google, and ride-sharing kings Uber and Lyft. As we reported when the bills originally passed through the Michigan Senate in September, the new laws mean autonomous vehicles can operate on any road in the state, at any time, and by anyone. Or no one.

Michigan's laws are unusual compared to Florida or California because they give companies the right to sell cars without traditional controls, like steering wheels or pedals. That's great news for Google and its mouse-like autonomous vehicle, but it's equally important as companies across the tech and automotive industries race to deploy fully autonomous ride-hailing services – Michigan has just become ground zero in the quest to kill the cabbie and fill American roads with robo taxis.

"By establishing guidelines and standards for self-driving vehicles, we're continuing that tradition of excellence in a way that protects the public's safety while at the same time allows the mobility industry to grow without overly burdensome regulations," Gov. Snyder said.

Reality check in Mercedes AMG F1 driver search

If one ignores the pie-in-the-sky theories and the wishful thinking that is going on at the moment on the Internet, Mercedes really doesn’t have a lot of choices with regard to drivers for 2017. People forget that F1 has long had a system of protecting contracted parties with its Contract Recognition Board (CRB).

Teams accept that they will respect the decisions of this body when they sign their commercial deals with the Formula One group, when they enter the World Championship and in the driver contracts. Drivers agree to accept the CRB decisions when they sign their team contracts. This also means that all parties agree to expressly submit themselves to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CRB and not go to any other legal bodies, such as the High Court. So, in effect, this means that a driver can get out of a contract that has been lodged with the CRB only if there are specific clauses in the contract to allow him to do so; or if the team and the driver can reach a suitable arrangement that means that the contract is declared null and void by both parties. This can happen, but usually involves rather considerable amounts of money changing hands.

The CRB is designed to protect both the teams and the drivers and, generally, it has worked extremely well. So, even if a driver decides that he wants to stop driving for a certain team, for example, he can do that, but he cannot then go off and drive for someone else, until the original contract is finished.

So, it is safe to assume that all the big names at Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull and Renault are stuck where they are. The negotiations for the release of a driver is therefore largely down to money. This effectively means that anyone in the back half of the grid can be poached, if there is a big enough cheque involved.

The retirement of Nico Rosberg means that the Mercedes team has something like $15 million (plus bonuses) available to find a suitable replacement, as Rosberg will not be getting the money that was budgeted for him. Obviously, Mercedes would like to hold on to this money and employ someone cheaper as a saving of $10 million is $10 million in the bank. Thus, if there is a free agent, who is a good enough and will accept a contract worth $5 million (or less), Mercedes will be in a good position. Does anyone fit the bill?

It is extremely unlikely that Mercedes would look beyond the current F1 driver pool, so we can exclude some of the sillier suggestions of drivers from GP2, DTM, IndyCar and so on. We can probably also exclude the two F1 drivers who are retiring from F1 this year: Jenson Button and Felipe Massa. They are the past, not the future.

Looking down the World Championship finishing order, it is clear that Dan Ricciardo, Sebastian Vettel, Max Verstappen and Kimi Raikkonen are all contracted for 2017. Next in the pecking order are Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas. It is unlikely that Force India would agree to part with Perez because there is a large amount of sponsorship tied to the Mexican, even if Mercedes could replace some of that funding with a better engine deal, or whatever. It does not help that Force India did not want Pascal Wehrlein because he might also be offered to the team as part of a deal.

Mercedes has been planning for a long time to bring on its two junior drivers, to one day replace its big name stars, but there is a very decent argument that neither is yet ready to step in to the factory car. Indeed, it would be potentially disastrous to put in a youngster who is not ready, as it might end up destroying their F1 career. Esteban Ocon’s deal with Force India is designed to give him two years to mature and then be available to Mercedes in 2019. As I understand it, he cannot get out of the deal before then, unless there is a financial settlement and Mercedes will not want to pay more than the money that Rosberg’s departure has released. Max Verstappen has shown that it is not impossible for a youngster to step straight in to a top car, but not everyone is Max Verstappen…

                    

The man who is probably most likely to get the Mercedes drive is Valtteri Bottas, who is in the fifth year of a five-year Williams contract. His salary will not be enormous. He is also managed by a company in which Toto Wolff is a shareholder and the Austrian has always had a strong interest in Valtteri’s career. This might raise questions of corporate governance issues for Mercedes but Wolff does not need to be the one negotiating the deal. Niki Lauda can do that.

What would be in it for Williams? Well, the simple answer is money, and the slightly longer answer is money and a closer relationship with Mercedes-Benz. Money can be in the form of cheaper power units, straight cash or even the provision of a replacement driver for free, or a combination of the three. In other words, Williams might be able to ask Mercedes for $10 million to release Bottas and Mercedes would not be losing any money if Bottas was willing to accept $5 million in salary. Frankly, Williams might even get $15 million if Mercedes gave Williams $10 million and Bottas paid the team his first year Mercedes salary, in order for him to get into a winning car. Mercedes might also offer Williams Pascal Wehrlein as a replacement.

At the same time, there is also the fact that a Williams refusal to let Bottas go might not be wise thing in the long-term as Mercedes is not obliged to supply its engines to Williams beyond the term of the contract (whatever that may be) and so it might be wise for Team Willy to stay sweet with Mercedes and get as much as it can, without pushing too far. If Bottas was to move on, Felipe Nasr might be a decent option because he might be able to revive some of his sponsorships if he was going to get into a Williams. Thus, the team could end up with a massive budgetary hike if it lets Bottas go and the money gained could then be used to make the team more competitive in the longer term. Mercedes would benefit from a stronger Williams as it would provide more competition for Mercedes’s rivals – and take points away from them.

The other two names that ought be considered as possibles are Carlos Sainz and Romain Grosjean. The Spanish driver is contracted to Red Bull, but it might consider a buy-out because Sainz’s progress is now hindered by the presence of Ricciardo and Verstappen and Red Bull has a replacement ready in the form of Pierre Gasly. But Red Bull has invested a lot in its young drivers and will not be overly keen to sell them cheaply, so a buyout of Carlos’s contract would not be cheap.

Grosjean is the only driver known to have a “top team” get-out clause in his contract, but what is not clear is whether this clause is Ferrari-specific, or could allow him to go to Mercedes as well. If there is a non-specific clause then Grosjean could be free and would be a decent and easy choice for Mercedes. We know he is a very capable driver and he is hungry for his first win, having come close several times in the past.

While it is not a primary consideration for most drivers, it would be wise for whoever take the seat to get a two-year deal (which would then match what Rosberg had) as a one-year deal might do the replacement more harm than good because stepping into a new team is not always as easy as it sounds and it takes time to settle in.

We will see what happens now, but the smart money seems to be on a deal that will see Bottas moving on and Williams getting a big financial boost. We expect a decision sooner rather than later as the more time a new driver gets with a team, the better he will be in March.

By: Joe Saward